Free Civil Litigation Tool
Settlement vs. Trial Calculator
Should you accept the offer or take your chances at trial? This tool weighs a settlement offer against the expected value of a trial, using your claim value, realistic chances of success, and cost to get there.
Quick Answer
Deciding between settling and going to trial in Ontario comes down to the expected trial recovery minus legal costs, delay, and risk. Trials are expensive and uncertain, and the losing party usually pays part of the other side's costs. Under Rule 49, if you reject a formal offer to settle and then do no better at trial, you can be penalized in costs. Most civil cases settle because a certain, earlier resolution often beats a larger but risky and costly judgment.
Your Estimate
Enter your details on the left to see your estimate. This tool gives a general estimate only — not legal or financial advice.
Disclaimer: This calculator uses a simplified expected-value model and is not legal or financial advice. It does not account for the risk of paying the other side’s costs, delay, collectability, or the stress of litigation. A single trial outcome can differ dramatically from an expected value. Discuss any settlement decision with your lawyer.
Frequently Asked Questions
How do I decide between settling and going to trial?
A useful starting point is expected value — your chance of success multiplied by what you would win, minus your cost to get to trial — compared against the offer on the table. But the decision also involves the risk of a bad outcome, potential adverse costs, delay, and stress, which usually tilt sensible parties toward reasonable settlement.
What is expected value in litigation?
Expected value is a way of accounting for uncertainty: it weighs the amount you could win by the probability of winning, then subtracts your cost to get there. It is a decision-making aid, not a prediction — an individual case resolves at a single outcome, not the average.
What is the risk of going to trial?
Beyond losing the claim itself, an unsuccessful party in the Superior Court can be ordered to pay a portion of the other side’s legal costs. That downside, plus the time, expense, and uncertainty of a trial, is why the great majority of civil cases settle.
Should I reject a settlement that is below my expected value?
Not necessarily. Expected value ignores your appetite for risk. A guaranteed, somewhat lower settlement is often worth more than a higher but uncertain trial result — especially when the downside includes adverse costs. This is a judgment call best made with legal advice.
Related Guides & Services
